If Mexico was governed under a right-wing plutocracy, we wouldn’t hear the end of the praising and glazing from US mainstream media on the fact that the MXN peso is trading at less than 20 MXN pesos to every US Dollar.

Instead, we hear high-pitched frantic calls around their electoral process for judiciary members. Given the United States’ lifetime appointment of fascist enabling Republican cronies, we would imagine the general population of the United States has a different opinion about Mexico’s election of judges.

Currently, Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) has been easing policy from the highs reached earlier this year, and in late August it trimmed the macro downside while nudging growth expectations up — the bank recently cut its benchmark rate to 7.75% and raised its 2025 growth forecast to about 0.6%, which changes the rate/differential story traders had been trading. That mix (lower local rates but a marginally better growth outlook) is one reason the peso has been less one-way volatile than in past episodes.

External factors still bite. Market surveys and analysts warn the peso could ease if U.S. tariff measures resume in full (a temporary tariff freeze had helped the peso recover); a Reuters poll flagged a modest expected depreciation over the next 12 months once that support fades. In other words, U.S. trade policy and the dollar’s path remain key downside risks.